The sound of success | Economist.com
A special report on Austria
In this special report
Austria's success
The difficult past
Consensus politics
Austria and Europe
A strong economy, for now
Industry's resurgence
Making good times better
Audio interview
Sources and acknowledgments
Offer to readers
donderdag 22 november 2007
Economics focus | A new fashion in modelling | Economist.com
Economics focus | A new fashion in modelling | Economist.com
“THE forecaster is like an entrepreneur,” says Roman Frydman. “He uses quantitative methods, but he also studies history, and relies on intuition and judgment. He is not a scientist.” According to the New York University economist, this fact has been lost on contemporary economists, who continue to pursue the perfect economic forecast despite abundant evidence that it does not, and cannot, exist. They dismiss their repeated failures in much the same way that self-styled reformers in Mr Frydman's native Poland once insisted that socialism was great, but just needed to be carried out better.
http://www.amazon.com/Imperfect-Knowledge-Economics-Exchange-Rates/dp/0691121605/ref=si3_rdr_bb_product
“THE forecaster is like an entrepreneur,” says Roman Frydman. “He uses quantitative methods, but he also studies history, and relies on intuition and judgment. He is not a scientist.” According to the New York University economist, this fact has been lost on contemporary economists, who continue to pursue the perfect economic forecast despite abundant evidence that it does not, and cannot, exist. They dismiss their repeated failures in much the same way that self-styled reformers in Mr Frydman's native Poland once insisted that socialism was great, but just needed to be carried out better.
http://www.amazon.com/Imperfect-Knowledge-Economics-Exchange-Rates/dp/0691121605/ref=si3_rdr_bb_product
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